MIRAI Expo 2023

What is Mirai Expo?

De-Generationalizing Society

Mirai Expo seeks to present a futuristic view of Japan 10 to 15 years ahead under various themes.

This year’s theme is “de-generationalized society,” a unique long-term trend discovered by the Hakuhodo Institute of Life and Living.

Introduction

The Hakuhodo Institute of Life and Living decided to define a society where the variance of values and preferences among sei-katsu-sha in different age groups diminishes as a “de-gerationalized society.” That means that the demographic features of sei-katsu-sha, on which our business growth has depended over the years, will change substantially.

Part 1
Discovery of de-generationalization

What do we mean by the trend of “de-generationalization”? What led us to discover this phenomenon?

  • We first discovered “de-generationalization” in the long-term data series (1992–2022) of the Chronological Lifestyle Survey on the Japanese People, conducted by the Hakuhodo Institute of Life and Living.
  • The data graphically showed two opposite trends. Answers to some questions indicated widening gaps between age groups, while other questions pointed to diminishing gaps in answers.
  • Which is larger in number? ⇒ More questions showed a diminishing gap in answers.
  • Where is the trend most prevalent? ⇒ The reduction in difference between age groups was happening in various aspects of life, including clothing, food and housing.
  • Is this trend only apparent in the Chronological Lifestyle Survey? ⇒ The long-term data series of the Survey of Japanese Value Orientations (1973–2018), conducted by the NHK Broadcasting Culture Research Institute, also found smaller differences for a majority of items.
  • This reduction in differences between age groups definitely represents a sea change in sei-katsu-sha behavior. We named this trend “de-generationalization.”
Figure

Part 2
Background to de-generationalization

  • The shift in the diagrams of the Chronological Lifestyle Survey provides a clue to the background.
  • We focused on the pattern of the shift in the diagrams showing reduced gaps between age groups.

Type 1 shift
Upward convergence
(all age groups showing an increase and coming closer)

Examples:
“I love Korean barbecue.” “No mobile phone, no life.”
“I often use pre-cooked food products.”
⇒ Items related to mental and physical strengths and knowledge
Suggested background to de-generationalization 1: Shift in competencies = Increase in “can dos”

  • Increase in older persons who are young at heart and in physical strength
  • Enhancement of “life infrastructure” accessible to everyone

Type 2 shift
Downward convergence
(all age groups showing a decline and coming closer)

Examples:
“Married couples should never divorce whatever the reason.”
“It is only natural to obey the conventions and rules of society.”
⇒ Items related to common sense, customs and values
Suggested background to de-generationalization 2: Shift in values = Decrease in “should dos”

  • Exit of generations with a traditional set of values
  • Common experience of the “lost three decades” by the remaining generations

Type 3 shift
Central convergence
(all age groups converging on the center)

Examples:
“I’m rather picky about the things and services I buy.”
“I’m interested in trends and what’s fashionable.”
“I drink alcohol.”
⇒ Items related to preferences, interests and passions
Suggested background to de-generationalization 3: Shift in preferences/interests = Coincidence of “want tos”

  • Wider choice of ways of living unbound by “age-appropriateness” or “suitable age”
  • Diversification of preferences/interests within the same age group often resulting in sharing the same passions with different generations

Part 3
Future of de-generationalization

  • Will de-generationalization progress?
    • A cohort analysis of the Chronological Lifestyle Survey data suggests that differences between age groups will diminish further in 2032.
    • Advancement of technology, as represented by autonomous driving and artificial intelligence (AI), will make many more activities possible across the age groups.
    • Further generational changes going forward will result in the exit of generations who experienced rapid economic growth, resulting in a society of generations sharing the same values.

    ⇒ For those reasons, we believe that de-generationalization will be an established trend going forward.

  • What does the future hold for a de-generationalized society?

    ⇒ The trend is expected to bring about changes in many areas, including individual lifestyles, interpersonal relationships, social structure and markets.

    1. Individual lifestyles: From fixed to variable
      • More sei-katsu-sha will depart from an “age-appropriate” lifestyle.
      • People will not make their life plan according to their actual age but with reference to their “effective age,” including their capabilities and internal youth.
    2. Interpersonal relationships: From conflict to conversation
      • The convergence of values across age groups will create a shared belief that mutual understanding is possible.
      • The “middle-aged” group will drive communities, situated at the center of the age spectrum.
    3. Social structure: From small bunches to large masses
      • Segmenting the audience by gender and age will no longer be effective, partly due to the declining population (accelerating the “post-demographics” trend).
      • The trend will help reduce the gaps between geographical areas created by population aging.
    4. Markets: From horizontal to vertical organization
      • Cross-generational marketing strategies will be increasingly effective.
      • Product communication will have more chances by focusing on large similarities than on small differences.

Conclusion

  • Japanese society, characterized by longevity and a declining birthrate, is now experiencing aging in quantitative terms, but “de-generationalization” in qualitative terms.
  • This society may be better characterized by the disappearance of generations, rather than sei-katsu-sha of all ages coming closer to each other.
  • Is there any market that still excludes a potential audience because of age?
  • If demographics should lose some explanatory authority, sociographics or psychographics will be more effective explanatory tools.
  • It will no longer be valid to begin an analysis by looking at age groups. The initial step of marketing will change.
  • Beware of the trap of characterizing the target audience by age. The same insight might also be applicable to other generations.
  • We should move from creating differences to searching for similarities. You may wish to “re-aggregate” sei-katsu-sha data.